Global crop production must rise 86 per cent to meet world food needs by 2050, according to a study sponsored by businesses including Monsanto Co, DuPont Co, Archer Daniels Midland Co and Deere & Co.

By mid-century, planted acreage may need to expand 16 per cent, provided historic trends in yield increases don't change, according to the study released today in Washington.

Biotech products "are critical to growth in yields" in developed agricultural economies, study author John Kruse said at a briefing for reporters. For developing countries, genetic modification and engineering of plants will work in tandem with modernised farm and transportation networks to encourage greater output, he said.

The United Nations has said that by 2050, food production must increase by 70 per cent to feed an estimated world population of 9 billion people, up from today's 6.8 billion. The number of people going hungry each day topped 1 billion for the first time last year, according to the UN.

Crop and livestock output may fall as much as 25 per cent by 2050 unless food production and handling are changed, the UN has said. It cited increasing water shortages and shifting land use with climate change.

Yield, Acreage Growth
Based on historic trends, today's study from the Global Harvest Initiative projected rising soybean acreage in Brazil and India, while corn planting will increase in China, where rice will decline. Farmland will drop in China and the US, while remaining little changed in Europe, according to the study.

The initiative group was formed last year by the companies, which all have agribusiness units, to promote crop-yield and food-production increases. The organisation supports biotechnology and genetically engineered foods as a way to reduce the amount of land needed for agriculture.

Global daily calorie consumption per person is expected to rise 19 per cent to 3,226 by 2050 from current levels, according to the study. In Asia, people will eat more meat and vegetable oil, while in Africa, more grains and oils will be consumed, the study projects. India is a "wild card," according to the study, because of a cultural bias against eating beef and pork.

Overall grain consumption will rise 5 per cent, based on calories consumed by each person, by 2050, while the proportion of grain-based calories in the average diet will fall to 41 per cent from 48 per cent currently, according to the study.

The report issued today was prepared by IHS Global Insight, a subsidiary of Englewood, Colorado-based IHS Inc., which provides research and consulting services. Kruse is a managing director of the unit's agricultural group.