Despite the threat of a mild El Niño that began in October and will last until summertime next year, Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap expressed optimism that the Philippines will achieve self-sufficiency in corn in 2005.

Speaking before the Manila Overseas Press Club Farmers' Night on Wednesday, Yap forecasted a 5.93-million metric tons (MT) corn harvest next year, as average yield a hectare rises from 2.08 MT to 2.45 MT. At the very least, the country is expected to attain 86 percent self-sufficiency in corn next year, higher than this year's 79 percent, he said.

"Already factored in these projections is the estimated impact of the El Niño on corn area and yield," Yap noted.

The Bureau of Soils and Eater Management has calculated a potential yield reduction off 164, 784.83 MT as the abnormal weather disturbance affects 87, 674.81 hectares of lands planted to corn.

"However, these slight losses can be more than made up for by maximizing production in areas that will not be affected by El Niño, "Yap said.

The Department of Agriculture has lined up interventions to reverse the effects of the weather disturbance, including judicious water management, cloud seeding, hybrid-seed and fish-fry assistance, building of shallow tube wells and pumps for open-source irrigation.

Furthermore, Yap said, they will exploit the drying up of idle wetlands during the El Niño by converting then into farmlands planted to watermelons, vegetables, mongo and most of all, corn.

Some 30,000 hectares of fertile corn lands will be available in Agusan Marsh, Candaba Swamp in Pampanga, Liguasan Marsh in Cotabato and Saba Basin in Leyte.

The DA chief declared that favorable market prices emboldened farmers to raise their output by 22.5 percent to 4.27 million MT in the first nine months of the year, so the full-year target of 5.34-million MT for 2004 is within easy reach.

"At constant prices, the value of production of the corn sector grew by 22.5 percent to P12.8 billion as of September this year. This accounted for 6.22 percent of the total agricultural earnings during the period. The farm-gate prices of corn averaged P8.82 a kilogram," he said.

This year, the DA is looking at 79.43 percent self-sufficiency in corn, with yellow-corn yield at 3.18-million MT and white-corn output estimated at 2.16 million MT.

These can rise to 3.7 million MT for yellow corn and 2.29-million MT for white corn in 2005, as yield per hectare grows to 3.6 MT for yellow corn and 1.6 MT for white corn, respectively.